TOLEDO, Ohio -
Don't look now but Old Man Winter is lurking up north. He is close and could make a bold impact without much warning. Yet there isn't a major trigger in the forecast over the next several days, possibly for the next week or two, to bring us that blast of heavy snow and cold. The cold and snow pack is above average for this time of the year in Canada. With every passing weather system, over the snow pack, more shots of cold will swing into the Great Lakes region. It is only a matter of time before Old Man Winter will arrive, but for now he seems to be content just across the Canadian border.
Our next storm system will bring little to no snow accumulation early next week. Another storm system is expected the weekend of the 15th and 16th which will likely bring rain. Beyond that the models become very fuzzy. There are hints of a bigger storm around the 21st to the 23rd. However, it is way too early to have confidence in a possible storm so far away. Assuming it does develop then its track and temperatures will become a big question. Historically there is a 57% chance of a white Christmas in Toledo and our weather pattern may adjust in time to put that coat of white on the ground by Christmas morning.
Many people dream of a while Christmas and a bare ground the rest of the season and that doesn't look likely either. Our current weather pattern has a lot of similarities to the 2006-2007 late fall and winter season. If history repeats itself, this winter may have a slow start with a wild finish. After a couple shots of snow in December of 2006 the winter was mostly mild with little snow cover. February brought a quick end to the comfortable weather with a Valentine's Day blizzard, lots of cold and more shots of snow in late February. This winter is expected to have lots of ups and downs, but it could have a wild side as well!
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