TOLEDO, Ohio -
Sunday Evening Update: The computer models are in line for Christmas Eve. Up to 1" of snow is possible by Christmas Eve night. Less than a half inch is expected for most areas south of Toledo.
The majority of the computer models continue to show about 3-6" of snowfall for Wednesday across our area. The storm is now moving inland in the Pacific Northwest and the weather data is slowly becoming clearer. While most of the computer simulations are in line, there are two less likely possibilities as well.
The NAM computer model has been the outlier all day, but I can't completely ignore the data. Winter storms such as this one often drift to the northwest in their track. The NAM has that very solution taking place. The problem is if that occurs the storm will wrap warm air aloft into the storm. This could lead to a period of rain, freezing rain, and sleet. The NAM computer model has been showing very heavy snowfall west of I-75 with a winter mix east of I-75. The other thing the model has been showing is a lot more precipitation. In fact these particular maps have twice the amount of precipitation.
Again, 3-6" of snow seems like the most likely scenario, but the NAM model brings up two extreme possibilities. #1 warm air mixing in to create an icy mix with lower snow totals...#2 staying all snow but getting more precipitation which would equal more than 6".
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