Winter Storm Watches Issued For Day After Christmas - WICU12/WSEE Erie, PA News, Sports, Weather and Events

WINTER STORM WATCHES are in effect for all counties in our area, except for the extreme southeast corner of Michigan.

Regardless, ALL COUNTIES in our viewing area will see accumulating snow on Wednesday and Wednesday night.  This will likely be a larger winter storm than anything that we've seen since the winter of 2010-2011 (2 years ago).  4" to 8" is very likely across the heart of our viewing area.  There is a good possibility of 8" or more in the southeastern part of the area, from Upper Sandusky to Norwalk and east.  The far NW corner of the viewing area will likely see a little less, but 2" to 4" is still a very conservative forecast for Hillsdale County, MI.

TIMING:  Wednesday, snow will slide in from the south in the late morning / midday time frame, and intensify through Wednesday afternoon and into the evening.  Snow showers will linger on Thursday.  Heaviest snow: 3 PM – 9 PM Wednesday.

WINDS will also become an issue, blowing on Wednesday PM at 20 mph+ sustained (with gusts to 35-40 mph).  This will add to the blowing and drifting of the snow, reducing visibilities and making the road crews' jobs more challenging.

This is a nearly ideal storm track for significant snow in our area.  Computer models, early this Christmas Eve evening, are forecasting a wide spectrum of snowfall amounts.  This is very common for a winter storm – but confidence is high for this system because all models do indicate accumulating snow.  On the low end, the GFS model is sticking with 4" to 5" across the Toledo metro area.  On the other end of the spectrum, another good model (which has been consistently on the high end for this storm system, all weekend long), the WRF produces 12" of snow in the metro, with 15" from Findlay to Sandusky.  Is that possible?  Yes – but it is not the most likely scenario … it is still an outlier.  Public perception gravitates toward the higher end of a snowfall forecast range, and at this point, a reasonable forecast for the Toledo Metro area leaves us at 4" to 8" for Wednesday and Wednesday night.